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The Case for Convertibles
by Dion Friedland, Chairman, Magnum Funds
Fund manager Mikhail Filimonov isn't
taking any chances, or any large ones anyway, with investments like that of his
nine-year-old daughter's college savings. Instead, Filimonov has adopted a
low-risk, high-reward approach for his Alexandra Global Investment Fund,
so-named for his daughter. Buying convertible bonds and simultaneously selling
short the underlying stock, Filimonov positions his investments to be neutrally
hedged - in other words, immune to market fluctuations. If a stock price falls,
the investment is protected -- and often enhanced -- by the short position. No
matter the stock price, the investment generates profits from interest on the
bond and short sale proceeds.
Filimonov's approach is
called convertible bond arbitrage, one of many "hedging" strategies
found in the hedge fund universe. Hedge funds refer to funds that can use one or
more alternative investment strategies. Popularly perceived to be risky due to
over-publicized losses in global macro funds in recent years, hedge funds, in
fact, by their very definition seek to protect their investments by hedging
against the downside. True, not all hedge funds "hedge," but many do,
and one of the most successful of these techniques is convertible bond
arbitrage.
The term arbitrage refers to the
trading strategy of identifying assets which are not efficiently priced by the
market in comparison to prices of other related assets. In the case of
convertible bonds, it works like this: Take a 5% convertible bond maturing in
one year at $1,000, exchangeable into 100 shares of non-dividend-paying common
stock currently trading at $10 per share. An arbitrage strategy might hedge
against this long convertible bond with a short position of 50 shares of
underlying common stock at $10 per share. Pricing inefficiencies between these
two related securities, as we'll see, allow for profits both when the stock
price rises and falls. Adding to gains on the downside is the fact that
convertible bonds can only fall in value as low as their "investment
value" -- the value of the same company bond if were it were not
convertible. In this case, let's say the investment value is $920.
An investment position
such as this would likely have the following return dynamics:
Return When No Change in Stock Price:
| Interest payments on $1,000 convertible
bond (5%)
Interest earned on $500 short sale proceeds (5%)
Fees paid to lender of common stock (0.25% per annum)
Net cash flow
Annual Return
|
$50
$25
($1.50)
$73.50
7.3%
|
Return When 25% Rise in Stock Price:
|
Gain on convertible bond
Loss on shorted stock (50 shares @ $2.50/share)
Interest from convertible bond
Interest earned on short sale proceeds
Fees paid to lender of common stock
Net trading gains and cash flow
Annual Return
|
$250
($125)
$50
$25
($1.50)
$198.50
19.85%
|
Return When 25% Fall in Stock Price:
|
Loss on convertible bond (only falling as low as
"investment value")
Gain on shorted stock (50 shares @ $2.50/share)
Interest from convertible bond
Interest earned on short sale proceeds
Fees paid to lender of common stock
Net cash flow
Annual Return
|
($80)
$125
$50
$25
($1.50)
$118.50
11.85%
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As this example shows,
if a convertible bond arbitrage position is properly constructed, it should
profit not only from the bond coupons and short rebate but from changes up or
down in the underlying equity price. In other words, if the stock price
drops, the gain from the short common stock position should exceed the
corresponding loss on the long convertible bond. Likewise, if the stock price
rises, the gain on the long convertible position should be greater than the
accompanying loss on the short common stock position.
Explains Filimonov of
his fund's position in Gold Mines of Kalgoorlie (Australia), "The position
generates cash flow (bond coupons less stock dividend, less financing cost, plus
short rebate) of 12% per year. On top of that, hedged neutrally against stock
fluctuations, the position makes an additional 2% for every 10% up or down in
the underlying stock."

Adding
substantially to the upside, of course, can be leverage. Given the low-risk
nature of convertible bond arbitrage, leverage is often an attractive option to
investors.
If convertible bond
arbitrage sounds simple, well it is. But simple doesn't mean easy: In fact, fund
managers caution against small investors trying it on their own. Reasons:
Timing. If you're 30 seconds too slow in executing a trade, gains could quickly
turn to losses. Furthermore, high brokers' fees and brokers not paying interest
earned on the proceeds of short sales can also cut into profits.
In the five years from
1992 through 1996, market neutral arbitrage funds, of which convertible bond
arbitrage is a part, netted 13.5% per year compounded. Those are impressive
numbers to anyone, not only investors whose first priority is to preserve
capital. Though when it's a loved one's future at stake, like young Alexandra
Filimonov, protecting capital while reaping strong returns is
especially sweet.
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